Climate variable details
This webpage displays a set of map layers which illustrate the predicted impacts of climate change in the Wellington Region. Data was supplied with a report commissioned by GWRC from NIWA dated August 2017.
It shows predicted changes at 2040 and 2090 for a range of four RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). All changes are in relation to the 1986-2005 base climate. Each RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) is a modelled scenario for how greenhouse gas emissions could evolve over the rest of this century. RCP8.5 is a high emissions scenario, RCP4.5 and 6.0 are intermediate scenarios, and RCP2.6 is a very low emissions scenario.
The report can be downloaded from the GWRC website as a summary or full report.
Please note these results are based on modelled data, and as such they are indicative only of likely changes, depending on future greenhouse gases emissions.
The nominal resolution is 5 x 5 km. The zoom tool should be used with care, as the data is best interpreted as a broad spatial pattern. For coastal areas with no data, a direct extrapolation of the values immediately adjacent is appropriate. All fields are a result of an average of six IPCC models regarded by NIWA as adequately describing New Zealand climatic variability.
It’s impossible to know which scenario will be closer to reality by the end of the century, and therefore it is recommended that people’s planning incorporates a range of outcomes. The latest data (as of 2017) shows that even if all the pledges countries made under the 2015 Paris Climate agreement were fulfilled, global emissions could still be on a high-intermediate path not much lower than RCP8.5. Each country is required to update its pledge every five years, enabling the international community to improve emissions reduction commitments over time.